Technical - Partner Event
AI Seminar – Roberto Vega
When
March 4, 2022 - March 4, 2022
12:00 PM – 1:00 PM MST
Where
Online
Online
Presenter: Roberto Vega
Title: SIMLR, Machine Learning inside an SIR model for COVID-19 forecasting
Abstract: Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the epidemiological SIR model. For each region, SIMLR tracks the changes in the policies implemented at the government level, which it uses to estimate the time-varying parameters of an SIR model for forecasting the number of new infections one to four weeks in advance. It also forecasts the probability of changes in those government policies at each of these future times, which is essential for the longer-range forecasts. We applied SIMLR to data from in Canada and the United States, and show that its mean average percentage error is as good as state-of-the-art forecasting models, with the added advantage of being an interpretable model. We expect that this approach will be useful not only for forecasting COVID-19 infections, but also in predicting the evolution of other infectious diseases.
Bio: Roberto Vega is a PhD candidate at the University of Alberta working under the supervision of Russ Greiner. His research focuses on how to combine machine learning with medical expert knowledge to learn accurate predictive models. He also collaborates with the local startup MEDO.ai, where he works alongside their AI team to automatically analyze ultrasound images for the detection of health problems.
The University of Alberta Artificial Intelligence (AI) Seminar is a weekly meeting where researchers (including students, developers, and professors) interested in AI can share their current research. Presenters include local speakers from the University of Alberta and industry as well as other institutions. The seminars discuss a wide range of topics related in any way to Artificial Intelligence, from foundational theoretical work to innovative applications of AI techniques to new fields and problems are of interest. Learn more at the AI Seminar website and by subscribing to the mailing list!
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